July 2010
Clay Kirby and The Padres’ Lack of a No-Hitter
The idea for this post came from reading this article: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100727&content_id=12674202&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb
Sorry for the 2-week+ hiatus there, I’ve been busy working and Helping Vince and such. With Matt Garza throwing the fifth no-hitter of 2010 this week and the first in Rays history, there’s been some talk about the two remaining franchises without no-hitters- the New York Mets and the San Diego Padres. Each has their own curse or “legitimate reason” if you will that explains why they have not thrown a no-hitter while many other teams have thrown several.
The Mets seem to always come up in discussions of mishaps and missed opportunities. They are talked about more than the Padres in this no-hitter discussion not only because they are seven years older (1962), but because they have had much better pitchers over the years. Of David Cone, Tom Seaver, Johan Santana and others, none have been able to make it the whole nine innings. The Mets, of course, notoriously traded Nolan Ryan in 1971, who would go on to throw seven no-hitters throughout the course of his Hall of Fame career. In the article linked above, Noble mentions that David Cone came close in 1991. The link to that game is here. 9 innings, 11 K’s, 131 pitches, but a double to Felix Jose ruins it in the 8th inning. Three starts later, in his final start that year, Cone again pitched a complete game, this time allowing 3 hits and striking out 19 batters. For those who read my Game Score post, this one registered a 99 – wow.
The Padres story is much more heart-wrenching, and therefore intriguing. On July 21, 1970 (the article says July 20, but I’m certain it’s incorrect), Clay Kirby of the Padres took a textbook hard-luck loss. In the first inning of the game against the Mets, a run squeaked across on a ground ball out after two walks and three steals. Fast forward to the bottom of the 8th inning, and the Padres are still losing 1-0, Kirby has yet to allow a hit, and he is due up to hit with 2 outs. Manager Preston Gomez decided to pinch-hit with Cito Gaston, the current manager for the Toronto Blue Jays, who promptly struck out to end the inning. The Padres lost the game 3-0 and still have that goose egg in the no-hitter column.
The game was a fluke for Kirby, who finished his career with a 3.84 ERA. His best year came in 1971 when he finished at 15-13 with a 2.83 ERA and 13 complete games. Kirby makes it on to a few of the Padres’ all-time leaderboards, although mostly not ones you want to be on. He is 2nd in Padres history in walks with 505 and the leader in wild pitches with 48. It wasn’t all bad for Kirby though- he does place 7th all-time for the Padres in hits/9, K/9, and innings pitched, while placing 6th in shutouts and 3rd in complete games with 34.
As a side note, I love baseball cards (surprising, isn’t it?). I’m going to start including pictures of baseball cards with each post. This one is the Clay Kirby from the 1972 Topps set. I think the layout of the card is great, although it would be better if the player’s position was included somewhere. Oh, and if the colors were even remotely relevant to the team. Interestingly enough, almost as if I planned it this way, the back of the card makes mention of Kirby’s near no-hitter from 1970, and mentions another game from September 18, 1971 in which he threw a 1-hitter and won 2-1 against the Giants. The back of the card is below.
But anyway, if anyone out there wants to talk about/trade/buy/give me baseball cards, that would make my day.
The Mariners’ Net Gains from Cliff Lee
(Photo Cred: nydailynews.com)
The breaking news of the day is of course the first big trade of the season. The Seattle Mariners send Cliff Lee, Mark Lowe, and a chunk of cash to the Texas Rangers for Justin Smoak, Blake Beavan, Matthew Lawson, and Josh Lueke. The Rangers camp has to love this trade since Smoak has been disappointing so far, and they have the playoffs in their sights for the first time in over a decade. And the gravy is that Lee will most likely become a Type A free agent at the end of this season, meaning that if he is offered arbitration and he declines, the Rangers will obtain two top draft picks from whoever eventually signs him.
The Mariners, who have probably been the most disappointing team thus far this season, abandon ship on 2010 and stock up on prospects. Instead of looking at the value of this group and weighing it against Lee and Lowe to see if this was a fair deal, I’d like to weigh them against the group of guys Seattle traded to acquire Lee just a few months ago. I think this is more interesting because each team’s needs already dictate that this was a win-win trade, the Mariners don’t need Lee right now and the Rangers need a playoff push. The question I’d like to address is did the Mariners get more for Lee tonight than they gave up for him back in December?
The first trade was of course a blockbuster involving four teams. But here’s how it breaks down from the Mariners’ view with the two trades combined:
SEA receives:
Cliff Lee for 13 starts
Justin Smoak, 1B
Blake Beavan, RHP
Matthew Lawson, 2B
Josh Lueke, RHP
SEA gives up:
Mark Lowe, RHP
Juan Ramirez, RHP
Phillippe Aumont, RHP
Tyson Gillies, OF
~$2.5MM
So they trade 4 guys for 4 guys plus a couple intangibles that for the purposes of this analysis are probably a wash. Depending on how you want to value Lee’s production so far this season (which has been stellar), it was probably worth more than $2.5MM. But not enough to worry about. As far as the prospects go, they have never been my area of expertise, but I’ll do my best to collect data from people who know more than me…
Starting with the package that Seattle received, Smoak stands out as the only one with Major League service. He was rated #23 by Baseball America entering 2009 and #13 entering 2010. Those are some pretty big shoes, and he has not quite filled them just yet. Of course he has only been in the majors for less than half a season, so I’m not saying than anyone has or should be giving up on him. Scouts seem to believe that he has star potential, and the Mariners must agree.
Next up is the Rangers’ 2007 1st round draft pick, Blake Beavan. He has been pretty impressive since then, especially this season. Through 17 starts in AA he has pitched to a 2.78 ERA and an impressive 5.67 K/BB. That kind of command for a young player is hard to find, and Baseball America rates him as a 4th or 5th starter now, even with no improvement.
Matthew Lawson is not as popular with the scouts, but he is hitting .277 with 7 HR for AA this year. The same goes for Josh Lueke, who was promoted to AA earlier this year after posting a dazzling 0.46 ERA and 7.20 K/BB for single-A. It seems the Rangers are trying to sell high here, and you bet they are expecting to get two guys just like these or better with those compensatory picks for Lee this winter.
And now for what Seattle surrendered in this pair of deals. Mark Lowe is a former 5th round pick who has been around the majors for a few years now. He will miss the rest of this season with a back injury and was not incredibly effective before that. He has kept his ERA down between 3.0-3.5 but has been plagued by control problems.
Juan or J.C. Ramirez has struggled a little in the minors so far. He has yet to finish a season with an ERA under 4, but teams are enticed by his high strikeout totals. 21-year olds who average 7.7 K/9 innings are not to be discarded. With some patience and some good coaching this kid definitely has some potential.
Tyson Gillies is a speedy outfielder. He is currently hitting just .238 for AA, but last year he turned in a fantastic season in high-A ball, finishing with a .341/.430/.486 line and 44 stolen bases. He also had 18 outfield assists and just 2 errors. He was a 25th-round pick back in 2006 and seems to be playing above that level, but he still has a long way to go before he cracks the big leagues.
So what does all this mean? It sounds to me like the Mariners are coming away with a bit more than what they lost. I think the two best players of that group of eight may be Smoak and Beavan, and the worst has got to be Mark Lowe. When you add in the fact that they got to gamble with Lee for half a season, the Mariners are coming out of this looking pretty sharp. Well done, Jack Zduriencik and the rest of the front office.
Vote for Youkilis!
MLB is continuing the tradition of allowing the fans to choose between five players to take the All-Star team’s final roster spot. The candidates for the American League this year are: Paul Konerko, Nick Swisher, Kevin Youkilis, Delmon Young, and Mike Young. In my last post, I introduced WAR, a new age statistic that takes all factors of a player’s game into account and spits out one number- the number of wins that player has been worth to his team over a replacement level player. Now that all of my fantastic readers here at The 26th Man are armed with the most powerful weapon of all, knowledge, we can help make sure the best player wins this spot. Let’s take a look at some more traditional stats, and then WAR for each of the candidates.
As a reminder: the three averages separated by slashes is referred to as a player’s “slash line” and is their batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage.
Paul Konerko: .296/.384/.563, 80 Hits, 20 HR, 57 RBI, 0 Steals, 2.6 WAR
Nick Swisher: .293/.373/.505, 84 Hits, 13 HR, 47 RBI, 1 Steal, 2.3 WAR
Kevin Youkilis: .299/.416/.584, 82 Hits, 17 HR, 54 RBI, 2 Steals, 3.3 WAR
Delmon Young: .298/.332/.488, 77 Hits, 9 HR, 55 RBI, 3 Steals, 0.5 WAR
Mike Young: .307/.352/..487, 104 Hits, 11 HR, 51 RBI, 3 Steals, 2.1 WAR
Delmon Young is the clear loser here when WAR is introduced. This is because his defense and his baserunning are both below average. He also receives a slight subtraction for playing left field, one of the easier positions to play. A shortstop or third baseman is valued higher because those are difficult positions to play.
Mike Young, Swisher, and Konerko have similar WARs, coming in at 2.1, 2.3, and 2.6, respectively. Mike Young gets the votes from the fans who love a consistent contact hitter, Konerko gets the votes from fans who love power and home runs, and Swisher gets votes from ignorant Yankee fans. That may be a little unfair, but Swisher is currently winning the vote, so I’m just venting a little bit. Swisher is as deserving as these other two, but not as much so as Youkilis.
Youkilis is in a league of his own here in terms of WAR. He is actually not getting a huge boost from his defense here as some might expect, although he is above average. The key to Youkilis’ high WAR is in those first three numbers, his slash line. Only Young has a higher average here, no one can sniff his On-base percentage, and after Konerko, who really isn’t that close, no one even approaches his slugging percentage either. Youkilis is hands-down the best player of this group, and I’m counting on all you fans out there to reflect this in your Final Votes!
You can vote at MLB.com through Thursday, July 8th at 4 PM ET. They will also ask you to vote for the National League, so without going into too much detail, here are the numbers for the National League candidates:
Heath Bell: 4-0, 1.72 ERA, 49 K, 23 Saves, 1.2 WAR
Carlos Gonzalez: .295/.329/.493, 88 Hits, 14 HR, 52 RBI, 12 Steals, 1.4 WAR
Joey Votto: .312/.412/.572, 89 Hits, 19 HR, 57 RBI, 7 Steals, 3.2 WAR
Billy Wagner: 5-0, 1.35 ERA, 52 K, 17 Saves, 1.4 WAR
Ryan Zimmerman: .286/.376/.504, 76 Hits, 14 HR, 44 RBI, 1 Steal, 2.2 WAR
You shouldn’t even need WAR for this one, but in case you do- Votto is the winner. Vote for Votto! Catchy.
Just for kicks, let’s see if WAR thinks Youkilis deserved the starting spot. Youkilis finished 4th in the vote for the AL First baseman, behind winner Justin Morneau, Mark Teixeira, and Miguel Cabrera.
Kevin Youkilis: .299/.416/.584, 82 Hits, 17 HR, 54 RBI, 2 Steals, 3.3 WAR
Justin Morneau: .344/.437/.615, 99 Hits, 17 HR, 55 RBI, 0 Steals, 5.1 WAR
Miguel Cabrera: .339/.419/.630, 98 Hits, 20 HR, 69 RBI, 2 Steals, 3.3 WAR
Wow. Pretty interesting that Youkilis and Cabrera end up with the same WAR when Cabrera clearly has the superior offensive peripherals. And all I can do is tip my cap to Morneau, for deservedly winning the vote and for keeping Teixieira out of this contest. Morneau has been worth over 10 Delmon Young’s. Don’t forget to vote at MLB.com before July 8th at 4 PM!
The All Currently-On-The-DL Boston Red Sox & an Introduction to WAR
(Photo Cred: boston.com)
As the Red Sox take the field against the Orioles tonight, they do so with their 69th unique lineup in their 80th game of the season. Without further ado, I bring you the July 2nd, 2010 edition of the All Currently-On-The-DL Boston Red Sox. As a side note, I will explain what WAR means after the roster. Also, I will dip into the minor leagues when necessary to fill the gaps (there aren’t many).
Catcher
Jason Varitek; 23.4 Career WAR, 0.8 2010 WAR, DL since 7/2/10
We start off with the captain and the newest member of the All-DL team, Jason Varitek. With a broken left foot, he is expected to miss up to 6 weeks. He has exceeded the expectations of most this year and has performed more than admirably in the role he has been assigned.
First Base
Mike Lowell; 29.3 Career WAR, 0.1 2010 WAR, DL since 6/23/10
Lowell has been the odd man out on the team from the get go, and even with all these injuries there really is no place for him. Lowell’s injury is listed as a strained right hip, but you better believe that if the Sox needed him he would be playing through it. The sad truth is, we need the roster spot more. You may think it is a bit of a stretch to put him at first base, but he has actually played 6/10 games there this year (not including when he was the DH).
Second Base
Dustin Pedroia; 17.6 Career WAR, 3.6 2010 WAR, DL since 6/26/10
Pedroia has been the best player on this team this season by most metrics. For this reason his injury is probably the most widely known. He was recently joined by Jason Varitek on the All-Broken-Left-Foot team, but we’ll list those guys another time. This list is starting to look like an All-Decade team…
Third Base
Jed Lowrie; 1.5 Career WAR, has not played in 2010, DL since 3/26/10
Remember him? Lowrie is one of the longer-tenured members of this team, and has been forgotten by most fans. He is out with mononucleosis right now, but has been ailed by several aches and pains over his short career. The once highly regarded prospect sure is missed by the Sox right about now.
Shortstop
Jose Iglesias; hasn’t played in ML- WAR unavailable for minor leagues, DL since 5/29/10
I had to reach a little for this one, down to AA, but Iglesias is one of the team’s top prospects. He has a broken right index finger. Although he would almost certainly not have been called up to the Sox to help out at this point anyway, the injury is not helping his development into our first consistent shortstop since Nomar Garciaparra. Not that we have high expectations for him, no pressure Jose.
Left Field
Jeremy Hermida; 3.5 Career WAR, 0.0 2010 WAR, DL since 6/10/10
Hermida makes the list by virtue of his broken ribs. He, like Varitek, played better than a lot of people were expecting and was a great role player. Speaking of outfielders with broken ribs…
Center Field
Jacoby Ellsbury; 6.5 Career WAR, -0.2 2010 WAR, DL since 5/25/10
The date here is a little deceiving as that is just the start of Ellsbury’s latest stint on the DL. In reality, he has collected just 45 plate appearances this season. It’s pretty amazing when you take one of the best players and the spark plug out of this team and they are still one of the best teams in baseball.
Right Field
Zach Daeges; hasn’t played in ML, DL since 2009
Another bit of a reach, Daeges is probably one of the lesser known Sox prospects. This is because he has not played yet this season and missed most of 2009 as well with a severe ankle injury. When he has played though, he has shown some signs of promise, so here’s hoping he can overcome the injury bug and return as soon as possible.
Designated Hitter
Victor Martinez; 23.4 Career WAR, 1.2 2010 WAR, DL since 6/28/10
Martinez gets the nod at DH, since sadly he is not the best defensive catcher on this list. He was just heating up before he broke his left thumb. Hopefully he will back sooner rather than later to spare us Sox fans from the offensive efforts of a Kevin Cash/ Gustavo Molina platoon.
Starting Pitcher
Josh Beckett; 22.8 Career WAR, -0.9 2010 WAR, DL since 5/19/10
Beckett is out with a lower back strain. He obviously was expected to be at least an above average pitcher this season, and it just hasn’t happened. Remarkably, the rotation has been a strong point for the Red Sox, even with their ace on the mend.
Closer
Manny Delcarmen; 3.5 Career WAR, 0.2 2010 WAR, D
L since 7/1/10
L since 7/1/10
Delcarmen is a new member of the team as well, having just gone down with a strained right forearm. Bullpen depth is always crucial, but Manny hasn’t provided an irreplaceable service thus far. A triple-A replacement will do just fine.
This list will mean a lot more if you understand what WAR means, so I’ll try to explain it here for those who are unfamiliar with it. It is one of my favorite statistics and I plan on using it frequently on this blog in the future. WAR, which stands for Wins Above Replacement and was created by Sean Smith of baseballprojection.com, is defined on Baseball-Reference as “A single number that presents the number of wins the player added to the team above what a replacement player would add.” Pretty powerful concept, right? All these other stats we have mean nothing if your team doesn’t win games, so why not put a player’s performance in those terms? A replacement player is defined as someone on the cusp of the Major Leagues, a “AAAA” player if you will (between AAA and the majors). Essentially, the replacement level player will have a WAR of 0.0 and neither hurt nor help the team. It is important to note that these are not the worst players, many players have accumulated negative WAR totals with poor play.
I love this stat for a few reasons. Not only does it put everything in terms of wins, which just makes sense to me, but it also incorporates EVERY part of the game. Offense, defense, baserunning, pitching, even an adjustment for high leverage situations. I’m not going to post all the actual calculations because there are a couple different methods, I don’t fully understand them, and I don’t think you need to in order to appreciate and understand the stat. The other reason I love WAR is because it is used for both hitters and pitchers. There really has never been a way to compare Ted Williams to Roger Clemens before, but we now can see that by this method at least, Roger Clemens contributed just a hair more (128.4 to 125.3 Career WAR). All of the WAR numbers in this post and for all players can be found on www.baseball-reference.com.
Finally, to put the single season numbers into perspective a little (keep in mind that the 2010 numbers are for a partial season, through 7/1/10), Baseball-Reference provides this handy dandy scale. A 0-2 WAR season is typical of a reserve/bench player, 2+ is a starter, 5+ is an all-star, and 8+ is an MVP. There’s a lot I could say about WAR, but I’ll leave it at this for now and talk about it more in future posts as it becomes relevant.
rmcketchnie
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